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The text presents macroeconomic forecasts made at the time, distinct from final figures. Forecast income, consumption and investment must not be carried over into the current picture or used alone to justify an investment decision.
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The country's economy will grow by 2.6 per cent in 2016, according to the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance's autumn macroeconomic forecast. The new expectations for economic development are considerably more optimistic than the Ministry's spring forecast of GDP growth of just 2.1%. The revision is due to the national economy's better-than-expected performance in the first half of 2016, reports “Standard”. Expectations for the global economy have nevertheless been reduced. European economic growth is expected to remain subdued because of increased insecurity in the region, migration flows, the United Kingdom's departure from the EU and the deteriorating situation in Turkey. According to the Ministry of Finance, domestic demand (consumption and investment) makes a substantial contribution to the upward revision of Bulgaria's growth forecast. Higher personal incomes will result in consumption growth of 1.5 per cent this year. Growth in employment income over 2016–2019 is expected to exceed the spring forecast. For 2016, earnings are expected to rise by 5.8%, compared with 2.7% in the spring forecast. At the same time, investment growth is expected to slow as capital expenditure falls owing to the launch of new EU operational programmes. Despite an expected 2.7% rise in consumption in 2017, GDP growth next year will slow slightly to 2.5% because exports will increase only modestly as external demand declines. The Ministry states that domestic consumption will be driven by rising incomes and employment and by households' purchases of more durable goods.